7大征兆预示2011年手机产业动向

Seven good signs for handset biz

Mark LaPedus

The mobile phone industry looks decent for the fourth quarter despite a lull in the market. Here are seven good signs about the segment from analyst Mark McKechnie of Gleacher & Co.:

1. Good sign: Printed-circuit board (PCB) units are up

"Our checks suggest 4Q handset shipments from the top 3 PCB vendors will be up slightly, a marginal uptick from our flat to up expectation. We remain comfortable with up 13 percent quarter-over-quarter industry sell-in forecast. In our view, Europe is likely to see stronger Q4 seasonality than the U.S., and we expect most emerging markets to grow faster than the industry."

2. Strong retail demand

Best Bay "highlighted smartphone strength (comparable sales up 30 percent year-over-year) amidst softness in notebooks, TVs and other electronics (overall comparable sales down 5 percent year-over-year)."

3. Inventory levels remain in check

"Channel inventories remain within the typical 5-6 week range as a slightly greater willingness among carriers to take on inventory is offset by tightness in some components."

4. Samsung gaining steam

"Expect a solid 4Q from Samsung. We expect Samsung to ship about 80-81 million units (up roughly 13 percent quarter-over-quarter), in-line with our expectations from last month. We think tightness in OLEDs will impact shipments into 1Q. We expect ASPs flat to up slightly on improved mix, and double-digit operating margins.

"Samsung expects to ship 12-13 million smartphones in 4Q (up from 8 million in 3Q) driven by its Bada OS-based mid-range Wave phones for Europe and Asia. Samsung is seeing the greatest strength in Europe due to seasonality. We are encouraged by Google's Nexus-S "Google Experience" phone which began selling exclusively at Best Buy last week."

5. Verizon LTE now live

"We are impressed by Verizon's LTE network and view AT&T's recent spectrum purchase as a competitive reaction. We expect LTE handsets to arrive in early 2011 and provide a catalyst for smartphone upgrades at Verizon. We look for announcements of LTE handsets at Verizon at CES in early January."

6. Motorola tablet at CES

"Google Android head Andy Rubin displayed a prototype Motorola tablet running Android's 'Honeycomb" Tablet OS. We expect an announcement early next year, possibly at CES."

7. Broadcom rocks

"Broadcom updated its guidance to the upper end of the range based on mobile and Wireless strength."