大型星载天线展开系统故障树的区间分析方法

大型星载天线展开系统故障树的区间分析方法

内容简介：针对某周边桁架式大型星载天线进行展开可靠性研究.分析大型星载天线的展开机理,并在对星载天线展开系统故障树分析的基础上,针对传统故障树分析中存在的不确定性难以量化的问题,结合D-S(dempster-shafer)理论和区间概率理论,提出星载天线展开机构故障树区间分析方法,构造失效独立和失效相关情况下故障树区间分析的与门区间算子和或门区间算子,在此基础上对系统的展开可靠度进行分析和预测.可靠性分析的结果表明文中提出的计算模型和分析方法是合理和可行的.

Abstract：A study on the deployment reliability of a large satellite antenna with hoop-truss was presented. Firstly, the movement principium of the large antenna was studied. Secondly, To formulate the uncertainties of conventional fault tree analysis, the method of fault tree interval analysis based on D-S(dempster-shafer) theory and interval probability theory is proposed. On the condition that the premises in FTA(faulty tree analysis) is dependence or independence between basic events, the AND operator and the OR operator are proposed to compute interval probability of FTA, and upon which the system reliability was forecased. The reliability analysis shows that the rationality and validity of the presented method.

作者：林立广, 陈建军, 马娟, 刘国梁, 段宝岩,

关键词：星载天线, 展开机构, 故障树, D-S(dempster-shafer)理论, 区间概率理论,